Economist Nouriel Roubini: Trump is likely to escalate the Iran war — risking '1970s stagflation'
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By Chloe Taylor
Published on March 27, 2026.
Economist and investor Nouriel Roubini, known for predicting the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to escalate the Iran war, risking "1970s stagflation" if it does not go as planned, according to CNBC's Carolin Roth. He dismissed the notion that Trump was looking for an off-ramp to end the conflict, stating that the damage has already been done and that a ceasefire on Iranian-style conditions would make him look like a loser. Roubinis also warned of another scenario where Iran could continue to block Hormuz or attack the oil facilities of the Gulf, leading to 1970s stag inflation. He suggested that a regime change in Iran, which Trump has called for, could result in geopolitical stability, but also higher oil prices in the short term. Despite this, Roubani argued that markets were being too sanguid about Trump's desire to end this quickly, and that if he does not, he would lose credibility and lose the war. He also noted that while market pressure had previously forced him to back down in the past, this current situation might be different, he may be different.
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