Extreme wildfires, droughts and storms could happen even under moderate global warming, study finds
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By Sascha Pare
Published on April 1, 2026.
A study by the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research in Germany has found that extreme climate outcomes are possible even under moderate global warming levels. The study, which used the same ensemble of 50 climate models as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did in its study, found that while global temperatures stabilize at around 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels, these could increase risk of deadly floods in cities and severe droughts in major crop-producing regions more often than previously thought. The researchers identified three sectors that are particularly vulnerable to climate impacts, such as highly populated areas, breadbaskets, and forests, which are particularly at risk from wildfires. The research also found that even a moderate climate scenario can trigger climate events in each studied sector that vary significantly in intensity depending on the model.
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