The Trump administration has suggested that the United States joined Israel in attacking Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, may cause higher oil prices after the war and raise the risk of a recession in the U.S. The article suggests that the US has been reluctant to engage militarily with Iran, despite its regime being the most dangerous in the Middle East. However, it argues that no one can predict how such a war would turn out. The price of oil has increased by 50% since February, while the economy is already in a weak state. Annual growth in real GDP (GDP) has decreased from 3% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, unemployment at 4%, inflation at 2.5%, and inflation at above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The article also notes that the cost of the military is now consuming an extra $1 billion a day.