JPMorgan has reduced its official S&P 500 forecast to 7,200, down from 7,500, due to rising oil prices amid the ongoing war in Iran. The new target is now the second lowest on CNBC's 2026 market strategist survey, ahead of only Bank of America Merrill Lynch's forecast of 7,100. Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, the firm's head of global markets strategy, expressed concern that traders have grown complacency in anticipating a quick end to the U.S.-Iran war and a speedy reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also warned that investors are underestimating the effect higher oil prices will have on consumer demand, rather than inflation. A sustained 10% increase in oil prices would mean a 15 to 20 basis point hit to GDP.