Iran war spotlights India rupee's vulnerability, banks pitch cross-currency trades
By Jaspreet Kalra
Published on March 18, 2026.
Banks are pitching cross-currency trades targeting India's underperformance against Asian peers due to the Iran war-sparked oil surge. Barclays Bank is recommending positioning for rupee weakness against the Chinese yuan, while HSBC is backing the Singapore dollar. This comes as India is among the economies most sensitive to rising oil prices, which have threatened its external balances and its inflation-growth balance. The rupee is down about 1.5% since the war began, hitting a record low of 92.4750 versus the U.S. dollar last week. Barclays' economists expect China to achieve a record trade surplus above $1.3 trillion this year.
Read Original Article