The Middle East energy crisis and Russia's invasion of Ukraine have raised concerns that central banks may face another external shock. The claim that inflation expectations in developed markets are "well anchored" is now questionable, following a series of "black swan" events in recent years. This includes the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a significant jump in prices and a global energy jolt. Central banks may feel compelled to act unless the Strait of Hormuz, currently blocked by Iran, fully reopens soon. The lesson from the post-pandemic inflation surge is not necessarily to act faster, but to communicate better. The ECB's baseline puts inflation at 2.0% next year, its adverse scenario projects 2.1%, and its severe scenario suggests 4.8%. If these scenarios are implemented over the medium term, these could anchor inflation expectations without rapidly pulling the policy lever.