An unusually powerful El Niño event later this year could exacerbate food security fears due to disruption from the Iran war. Climate scientists have warned that a planet-warming El Niño is increasingly likely. U.S. meteorologists predict a one-in-three chance of a "strong" weather event forming in October to December. European climate models indicate an even higher probability of a very strong or "super El Niño". This event occurs when sea temperatures in the eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average. Some commodities such as cocoa, food oils, rice and sugar are particularly vulnerable to this weather event. Oil and gas prices and fertilizer costs have also increased due to the disruption of supplies through the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The price spikes for fuel and fertilizer come as the US planting season begins, raising concerns among farmers about increased food prices and lower crop yields. The number of food-insecure people globally could reach levels seen at the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to analysis by the World Food Programme.