Not just the base: Democrats in recent elections are flipping independent and Republican votes
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By Edward Wu
Published on April 1, 2026.
Two special elections in Florida have indicated that Democrats are gaining over Republicans and independents, with more registered Republicans than registered Democrats voting in the past two months. The results suggest that this success is not just from the base but also on winning over non-party members. In state House District 87, which was flipped by Democrat Emily Gregory, voter turnout was 46% Republican to 36% Democrat, and in state Senate District 14, Democrat Brian Nathan finished ahead with 46% GOP turnout versus 37% Democrat. Both Gregory and Nathan overperformed 2024 presidential margins by an amount larger than the shift in partisan turnout. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suggested that the Republican loss indicated poor performance with independents and that Republicans are voting the other way.
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