US intelligence agencies not expecting China to invade Taiwan in 2027
By Erin Hale
Published on March 19, 2026.
US intelligence agencies have stated that they do not expect China to launch an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, despite the country's longstanding goal of taking control over Taiwan. The year 2027 is considered an unofficial deadline for when the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLP) will have capabilities in place to attack Taiwan. However, US intelligence stated that this does not necessarily mean Beijing will launch an attack. The report also noted that a Chinese military onslaught against Taiwan would cause significant economic disruptions and significant costs to the US, Chinese, and global economies. The US does not formally recognise Taiwan's government but has pledged to help defend itself under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and policies including substantial arms sales and military training for Taiwan's military.
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