McKinsey’s new AI report argues the productivity payoff is real but conditional
By Allison Steffens Herrera
Published on May 1, 2026.
McKinsey's strategy practice has published a report, 'AI productivity gains and the performance paradox', which argues that most current AI applications accelerate existing work without redesigning workflows. The report suggests that larger productivity gains will only emerge once organisations redesign processes around AI rather than simply bolting it on top. The recommendations include assessing how AI will reshape industry profit pools, build or strengthen AI-powered competitive moats, and using AI to transform products or processes. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis has measured 1.9% excess cumulative productivity growth since ChatGPT launched in 2022, well below the rates required to justify current AI capital spending. JPMorgan Chase's real-time AI fraud detection, BMW's computer vision quality inspection, and Siemens' AI-coordinated predictive maintenance are examples of the work-acceleration tier. However, the report concludes that 95% of organisations see no measurable returns from AI adoption.
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