A survey conducted by the Duke University Department of Economics has warned that the Iran war could push U.S. inflation and unemployment higher than the Federal Reserve expected this year. The findings come just days before the Fed's March policy meeting, when policymakers will release their “dot plot” forecasts for interest rates, inflation, and employment. The CME Group FedWatch tool estimates a more than 99% chance the Federal Open Market Committee will hold rates steady at its March 17-18 meeting. The survey also found that most respondents believe the Fed would likely need to hold policy steady this year, and that slower growth in economic output than previously estimated. The Fed's dual congressional mandate requires it to balance full employment and price stability, which often conflict with global events such as pandemics and wars.