The U.S. services sector activity reached a 3-1/2-year high in February, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). This is expected to boost economic growth in the first quarter after a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter. However, the ISM survey was conducted before the US and Israel attacked Iran, raising natural gas and oil prices and causing volatility on global stock markets. Goldman Sachs estimated that each $10 per barrel increase in oil prices would reduce 2026 fourth quarter over fourth quarter GDP growth by about 0.1 percentage point if prices stabilized at a higher level. The ISM's measure of new orders increased to 58.6 last month, the highest level since September 2024.