Ecuador's economy is at a crucial moment in 2026, following a 2.0% economic contraction in 2024, driven by electricity rationing, sliding oil output, and gang-related security disruptions. The Banco Central del Ecuador confirmed that real GDP grew 3.7% in 2025, slightly revised from an initial estimate of 3.8%. This was the strongest recovery since the post-COVID normalization in 2022 and significantly above IMF projections of 1.2–1.6%. The country's fiscal deficit widened by 71% in 1925, despite compliance with the IMF program. The IMF projects a 2-0% GDP growth forecast for 2025, with the country's central bank slightly more optimistic at 2.3%. Key growth drivers include a $2.43 billion energy expansion plan, the US–Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, continued shrimp and agricultural export momentum, and a 191% surge in foreign direct investment in 2025 reaching $1.299 billion. Since the dollarization, average lending rates fell from 62% to 8% in 1999, annual inflation has fallen to 3.4%, and poverty has fallen from 64% to 45% of GDP in 2025.