Turnovers and luck: Which 2026 college football teams improve
By Bill Connelly
Published on March 24, 2026.
The article discusses the importance of turning away from the random nature of college football, with predictions that the teams that benefit from this randomness the next season tend to find it worse. Examples include Clemson and Baylor, who ranked first and ninth respectively in returning production heading into 2025, while Arkansas and Florida State had very different campaigns in 2024. Despite producing a combined plus-22 turnover margin in 2024, these teams combined for a minus-11 in 2025, a 33-turnover shift in the wrong direction. The study also reveals that teams that had a turnover luck of plus 5.5 in 2025 should expect their turnover margin to be reversed for 2025. The article also notes that in 2024 only 14 teams had turnover luck equal to plus 5,5, and that teams' average turnover margin dropped to minus-1 in 2025.
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