Analysis: The GOP’s blue-state blues
By Ronald Brownstein
Published on March 15, 2026.
After President Donald Trump's competitive performance in big blue states, Republicans have seen their prospects fade ahead of the midterm election. In blue states where Trump significantly improved his performance from 2020 to 2024, his approval ratings have dropped. This could pose a significant challenge for other Republican candidates. Dick Wadhams, former chair of the Colorado Republican Party, believes that Democrats have not erased public doubts on issues such as crime, immigration and the economy that opened the door for Trump's 2024 gains. Republicans are now relying on independent candidates like Maine Sen. Susan Collins and New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte to overcome this challenging environment. The loss of these states is seen as a significant shift from the Obama administration's dominance in blue states to a shift towards more moderate stances.
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