America’s frozen jobs market could stay on ice due to Iran war
Airfind news item
By Alicia Wallace
Published on March 29, 2026.
The US and Israel launched strikes against Iran four weeks ago, causing oil prices to rise and increase. The conflict has also disrupted the supply chain, increased inflation, and increased the cost of gasoline. Economists predict that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and the oil price stays above $100 through April, it could be a game-changer for the labor market. The US job growth was lackluster last year, but signs of a rebound were starting to emerge. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, expects a “jobless” expansion with employment gains of around 20,000 per month in the first half of the year and unemployment drifting towards 4.7% by the end of year. Despite this uncertainty, economists believe that the job market will continue to remain stable for now. The oil prices have increased since the start of the war, with average gas prices expected to rise to $3.98 per gallon.
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