Why the Iranian regime did not collapse after Khamenei’s assassination
By Abdullah Fahad Al
Published on March 17, 2026.
The assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has led to speculation that the Iranian regime will collapse following the war. However, this does not necessarily mean it will survive the war unscathed. The Iranian constitution, which was drafted with the potential for a power vacuum, allows a temporary council to assume leadership when the position becomes vacant, until the Assembly of Experts chooses a new leader. The choice of the new leader was made up of 88 members and powers were transferred temporarily to a three-man council, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary, and Guardian Council member Alireza Arafi. The second layer of power is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is the backbone of the system, not just one of its institutions. Recent reports indicate that the main question is not "Is there a constitutional mechanism?" but "Will the IRGC remain cohesive?"
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