Economists have warned that higher energy prices could negatively impact the average American household's tax refund. The most recent Goldman Sachs crude oil forecast assumes a three-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz with prices expected to return to pre-war levels by June. This could result in an average household spending $740 more in gas costs this year compared with pre-year forecasts. This is similar to the $748 additional refund money the Tax Foundation projects for the average household due to the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act. However, other estimates of the extra refund cash flowing into Americans' bank accounts this tax season are smaller. The oil price shock amounts to a tax on households, as most people cannot change their energy consumption habits quickly.