Top polling expert, Paul Mitchell, has warned that Democrats are right to worry about the crowded race to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom, with the two Republican candidates potentially locking them out of the general election in an overwhelmingly blue state. Mitchell, who works at voting data firm Political Data Inc. and architect of Newsom's Prop 50 gerrymandering effort, created a tool that predicts which candidates will make the top two in the June primary to advance to November. The tool, which runs simulated elections based on polling data, campaign finance, and other factors, consistently gives GOP candidate Steve Hilton around a 73% chance of securing a top-two spot and gives the other Republican, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a 40% chance. The state’s Democratic Party had previously urged lower-polling candidates to leave the race, but this strategy is no longer likely to continue. As for Republicans, their best option is not to try to game the system to increase the odds of an all-GOP runoff, Mitchell said.