The White House's April 6 deadline for a deal with Iran has left oil and betting markets reeling. Prediction market platform Kalshi, which runs regulated event contracts in the U.S., stated that the president expects a deal and Iran is "negotiating now". This statement was met with criticism by several media outlets, including the president's demand for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a cryptic message on Truth Social that effectively delays his original deadline by 24 hours and sets up a made-for-television decision window. Outside reports have refuted the idea that a deal is close, with Iran denying talks and insisting they still see themselves as succeeding in a long conflict.