Crude oil futures prices are diverging from reality as physical prices indicate an imminent crisis in Asia. Global benchmark Brent crude futures ended at $91.98 a barrel on Wednesday, up 4.8% from the prior close, down from the previous day. Meanwhile, a physical cargo of Middle East benchmark Dubai crude over its paper equivalent rose to almost $38 a barrel, the highest since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Despite this, paper oil traders believe the campaign against Iran is successful and there is no threat to oil and product shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. This is particularly acute in Asia, which takes most of the 18 million to 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude and products that flowed through the strait prior to the U.S. and Israel launching an aerial campaign. The stress on supply chains in Asia is already becoming apparent and prices for actual cargoes and refined products are reflecting this reality.