Iceberg ahead! We’re only seeing the tip of changes from AI
By Gleb Tsipursky
Published on March 24, 2026.
A research paper by Ryan Stevens, author of Ramp research paper, uses payments data from thousands of firms to track spending from 2021 through 2025, showing that a $10,000 used to flow to a freelancer marketplace now amounts to just a few hundred dollars of model usage tied to an expense platform dataset and a handful of vendors. The study suggests that each $1 decline in online labor marketplace spending aligns with about $0.03 of additional spending on AI model providers, suggesting cost savings of roughly 97 percent when companies replace outsourced task labor with model usage. This disparity in spending shares explains why adoption continues expanding, even amidst executive discussions about the potential for increased brand risk. The paper also highlights substitution in spending share, with online labor marketplaces accounting for 0.66 percent of spend in 2021 to 0.14 percent by Q3 2025, while AI model provider spending rising to 2.85 percent by 2025. The article suggests that a 95 percent unit cost advantage rewrites labor demand across layers of the economy, allowing firms to purchase acceptable output at a far lower unit price. The next step is to integrate AI into roles that require professional competency and competency.
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