The potential for prolonged disruption to supplies of oil and other commodities has increased due to the ongoing military conflict between Iran and the Middle East. This could create a moderate stagflationary drag on the U.S. economy and a significant impact on Europe and East Asia. If oil prices continue to spike further, it could cause a recession in major oil importers and damage U.K. and Japan. The futures curve of Brent crude remains highly elevated, indicating ongoing supply problems. Goldman Sachs economists have modeled a scenario where Brent averages $98 in March and April before declining for the remainder of the year. Other extreme scenarios include a scenario in which global oil prices average $140 a barrel for two months, which would push the eurozone, the U., UK, and Japan into economic contraction.