'Black Swan' author, Taleb, has warned that Secretary Bessent's 50-day oil shock could turn into a decade of chaos amid the Iran War. This follows an interview where Bespent attempted to downplay the long-term economic fallout of U.S. military strikes against Iranian power plants and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Taleb criticizes Bessen for ignoring the concept of "Fat Tails", where extreme, high-impact events are more likely than predicted. He suggests that Bessents' strategy of "escalate to de-escalate" ignores how war variables multiply rather than add, creating a chain reaction that cannot be easily undone.