Polymarket Trader Who Won Big on Start of Iran War Betting Even Bigger on Impending Ceasefire
By Mike Pearl
Published on March 24, 2026.
On Sunday, X user @itslirrato discovered suspicious activity on Polymarket, where ten accounts were betting on a ceasefire in Iran by the end of the month. The accounts, named NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS, have bet $160,000 and if their prediction is correct, their winnings will exceed $1.04 million. The suspicious activity began with two bets on U.S. strikes against Iran by February 28 and March 31 respectively, which paid out $85,000. Both sites have now announced new measures to combat insider trading.
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