From surplus to strain: world rice supply threatened by Iran war, El Nino
By Naveen Thukral
Published on April 30, 2026.
Rice supply is expected to fall this year due to fertiliser shortages and high fuel costs from the Iran war, and an emerging El Nino set to squeeze output. The Iran war is impacting farmers in top exporters Thailand and Vietnam, as well as the import-reliant Philippines and Indonesia. The El Niño is set to usher in hotter, drier conditions for the region in the second half of the year. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization predicts rice output will expand by 2% to a record high in 2025/26. Despite ample rice inventories following years of bumper years, there are concerns that the world's largest exporter, India, could lead to a shortage of rice.
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