Why the bond market won't bounce back to pre-war levels
By Ankur Banerjee
Published on April 8, 2026.
Global bond markets may rebound but unlikely to fully recover from the war-driven selloff, due to concerns that energy prices and inflation will continue to rise for longer due to the peace, despite oil prices falling and stocks and bonds rallying. However, pre-war wagers for interest rate cuts in the US, Britain, and Norway have reportedly gone and won't return, according to investors. Some argue that the ceasefire may even tilt risk towards higher rates as it reduces the risk of severe oil shortages slowing global growth. The energy shock has brought inflation into focus, highlighting major economies' inability to bring inflation back to target for years. Despite broad markets' enthusiasm about the ceasefire, with stocks surging and Brent crude futures dropping below $100 a barrel for the first time in two weeks, analysts predict that short-end yields will struggle to lower as policymakers lack the room to cut rates.
Read Original Article