The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) has warned that food and non-alcoholic drink inflation in the UK is expected to rise above 9% by December 2026. The FDF, which represents about 12,000 UK food and drink manufacturers, forecasts this rise based on the expected return of Iran's vital Strait of Hormuz shipping route to port and return to normal within a year. It warns that further food inflation could increase if disruption lasts longer or energy supplies are severely affected. The industry is particularly vulnerable to oil and gas market shocks due to its high energy use and complex global supply chains.