U.S. oil prices will exceed Iran wartime high to above $125 as conflict drags on, Kalshi traders say
By Davis Giangiulio
Published on May 1, 2026.
Traders on Kalshi predict that U.S. oil prices will exceed Iran's wartime wartime high to above $125 per barrel as conflict continues. Users on the prediction markets platform believe there is a more than 50% chance that prices will reach nearly $127 per barrel this year, far higher than the current closing high of nearly $113 per barrel. While WTI prices remain off their highs before the U.K. and Iran announced a ceasefire, they are significantly higher than their lows of $82.59 on April 17. The decline in WTI oil prices has been reversed as there is no clear path to Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz nor the U., nor to the US.
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