Crude oil prices have surged by 40% since the start of the U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on February 28, reaching their highest levels since 2022. Iran has nearly halted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world's oil typically arrives from the Persian Gulf. This disruption could make $5-a-gallon gas commonplace if oil costs reach $150 a barrel. If the conflict continues for months, it increases the likelihood of higher pump prices. The national average for regular unleaded gasoline jumped about 7 cents overnight to $3.79, according to AAA. The shift to more expensive summer-blend fuel and increased spring break travel are also contributing to higher prices. Despite this, the Trump administration has downplayed the long-term effects of the conflict on gas prices.