Hezbollah sees potential win as Israel backs down from disarmament goal
By Seth J. Frantzman
Published on April 4, 2026.
Hezbollah has seen Israel's decision to abandon disarming the Iranian-backed terrorist group as a strategic win, believing it will benefit its survival and influence in Lebanon. Recent Israeli reports indicate that the Israel Defense Forces will not be able to disarm the terrorist group. Hezbollah believes this shift could align with its strategy, which includes allowing groups like Hezbollah to evacuate areas and move, similar to Hamas's in Gaza. Disarmament requires a political process and weapons collection, but Hezbollah believes it will not have to disarm. Hezbollah also anticipates Israel forcing around 1 million people to flee southern Lebanon, allowing Hezbollah to hide among them. There are concerns that a long-term Israeli occupation of Lebanon could lead to chaos and collapse due to the financial pressures of having a million million million people displaced.
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