A 20-year chart from State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) indicates that inflation may be accelerating at the diesel pump, with a potential annual CPI reading exceeding 8%. This is due to the largest single-month spike in diesel futures on record, with NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures trading at $4.0752 a gallon, up nearly 57% month-to-date. The national average for retail diesel is $5.099, up from $3.677 just a month ago, a 39% jump in 30 days. The historical relationship between fuel prices and consumer inflation implies a potential 1 percentage point increase in the annual inflation rate in a single month. This could lead to a significant increase in consumer sentiment, which tracks fuel prices more closely than any other economic indicator. The most likely outcome for the March U.S. annual inflation reading is above 3.4%, with a 53% probability.